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Monday, May 22, 2006

Proof at last...

Im about halfway through one of the new books i bought... came across an interesting few lines...

This is from "Dirty Poker", written by infamous casino cheater 'Richard Marcus'. He talks a bit about how you get cheated online by both the other players (through collusion) and the card rooms themselves.

"Lets take a look at how the actual games offered by every online poker site work. They use random number generators (RNGs) to 'shuffle and deal' the cards. In principle, unless they are crooked or contain bugs, computer shuffles are closer to being completely random than shuffles in a live action game. This is true because no cardroom dealer performs a totally random shuffle. He cannot obtain that result because he is human and often might just rush the shuffle to the point he is doing nothing more than riffling through the deck, leaving clumps of cards throughout.

However, there can be bugs in the shuffling algorithms. A few years back, a team of computer programmers from Silicon Valley moonlighting as card cheats discovered a means of calculating the precise order of cards in decks shuffled by algorithms used by multiple online cardrooms. Their discovery was hushed, but the fact was that with the application of this knowledge, the cheats knew in advance the hand of each player at the table as well as the future cards to be dealt; either to the players individually in stud games or on board in Hold'em and Omaha games.

The flaw in the algorithm was that the starting point used for the RNG was the number of milliseconds since midnight according to the systems clock. All the Silicon Valley geeks had to do to compromise the RNG was synchronize their programme with the system clock. Online cardrooms today insist it is no longer possible to crack their shuffling algorithms, but I wouldn't want to bet my case money on what they say.

If RNGs are truly random, then over millions of hands we should see a distribution of deals, flops turns and rivers no different than live poker. But I have heard from many sources in the know that RNG's randomness may not be 100% random. A computer whizz I know has run his own programmes to keep track of what goes on in internet poker. He chose one particular major site and tracked a million hands of Texas Hold'em. What he found, somewhat to his shock as he professed it to me, was that the RNGs seemed to be skewed to put more pairs on board and create more flush draws. Although such machination is not directly cheating its playing customers, it certainly can be concluded that biased RNGs benefit the site immensely".

"How? The obvious explanation is that they create more action. When you have an inordinate number of flush draws, you keep more players looking to catch a flush in the pot. Same thing with pairs on the board. They open up possibilities of sets and full houses. Again, more players exhibiting more staying power creates a lot more action. The end result is the creation of bigger pots, which in turn attracts more players to the site increasing its revenues through table rakes of more games. Do I personally believe this is still happening on the major sites?

You bet. Even if the RNGs are skewed by just a tiny amount, lets just say a fraction of a percent, that irregularity will generate millions of dollars of additional revenue for the site over a long period of time".


I wouldn't call this proof by a long shot, but I'm surprised that this sort of an experiment hasn't been done before. We're investing so much money into these online cardrooms, with absolutely no guarantee that we will get a fair game.
If ever there was a book to get you paranoid, this is it...


He goes on to attack all the common replies people who think they are being cheated get...

"You get all the nonbelievers who tell you stuff like "you get wiped out online because your never concentrating totally while playing", or maybe your playing too many games at once... "

Utter crap, as I knew already. I'm so sick of people spouting these reasons for why I can't make money online. I play well, I get my money in ahead, and I lose to bad players making bad moves and getting lucky.

As I am writing this, I am as usual getting horribly robbed over and over and over again...this one is all in preflop.

Why do I bother...the most annoying thing is the big 5 second pause before the river burns you. What is that all about? How do you cope with sooooo many bad beats...

Hopefully someone will do a study on this soon, and perhaps prove once and for all that online poker is utter crap...

The day online poker is banned will be the happiest of my life!

In other news, Ive been chat banned from PPP for a week for obvious reasons...

Comments:
Don't worry I don't... I won't believe there's any real cheating being done, but it would be naive to think that these huge poker companies wouldn't take that extra 1% edge if it meant an extra few million dollars of profit.

My point is, why has there never been an in-depth study of online poker over say one or two million hands, by a reputable third party?

We're handing over so much money to these people through rake and we only have their word for it that they are being legitimate and we are getting a fair game. RNG certificates mean nothing, who are they certified by? Most of these companies work from outside America and Europe in the Bahamas or such a place, and therefore avoid much of the regulation they might face (if there was proper regulation...)

Basically what I'm saying is, I won't believe that 'online is rigged' or anything like that until I see proper evidence of such. However, on the other hand, I won't take for granted that these companies, who are in the business to MAKE A PROFIT, would never cheat their players...
 
Just stop playing on Tribeca Rory!!! It is defintely an 'action flop' site with a non-random deal...imho only but I still will never play there again.

I toughed out my 2 grand challenge online but am now utterly sick of online play - it's live all the way from here!
 
I should stop playing online altogether...

Im really happy with how my live game has improved over the last two years, and I make the top 10% in most live tournaments I enter, with a few nice wins under my belt. Ive made about €12K in about 30 tournaments, never spending more than €100 on a tournamnent.

Then there's online... I actually think I'm a worse online player than I was when I started last year. Consistent bad beats and ridiculous hands have made me so paranoid, and the standard of players online is just too bad to get a decent game.

I've been told that if I move up a few levels, the standard will be better and I'll play better, but to be honest, I'm not willing to invest any more than €50 here and there on it.

The way I see it, if I'm going to spend €100 on a poker game, why play online? At least if I play live I will enjoy it. I don't know anyone that actually enjoys online poker. Its all about the $$$...

I reckon its going to stay like this until I actually decide to invest some real money at it or give it up for good.

gl
 
I enjoy online poker!. In fact i seem to be the opposite regarding online and live!. Cant seem to catch a break live.

I too have a note on Persaud.
Not to complimentary if i remember!. What crime did he perpetrate!?.
 
Think about what your saying Rory, There has been an in depth study into all Poker Sites and their randomness - its called Poker Tracker, If it was rigged in any way then it would become immediately apparent in a persons PT stats. I have 75k hands logged, im sure others have much more, and I would notice if there was anything dodgy going on. HJ
 
I know, I know. As I said already I don't think its rigged. Im just surprised that a proper study of it has never been done (to my knowledge).

PT would only have a record of the hands you have played, which should be enough. But I'm talking about a system wide analysis of all the poker-rooms.

It would at least stop all these "online poker is rigged" moaners. And before you ask, no I'm not one of them...

Im just paranoid due to a year long run of bad variance online mixed with this book I'm reading...

In fairness though, I do think online poker could be beginning to peak, and like everything else, only the strongest companies will last. Hopefully we don't see some of the smaller companies resorting to 'desperate measures' to stay in profit...
 
Gaming Associates are a third party company who monitor the fairness of tribeca RNGs. I'm sure they simulated well over 1M hands.
 
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